The 2022/23 growing season was, by most measures, the worst drought to affect Argentina in decades. A severe La Niña-driven meteorological event caused catastrophic losses across the Pampas, slashing soybean production to roughly 22 million tonnes and corn to around 35 million tonnes — far below historical averages. The impact cascaded through the macroeconomy, reducing foreign exchange earnings, widening the trade deficit, and constraining the Central Bank's ability to accumulate reserves. The 2023/24 season therefore carried enormous expectations, and the recovery largely delivered.
Record harvests: soybeans and corn rebound
The 2023/24 growing season delivered a remarkable turnaround. Soybean production recovered to approximately 50.7 million tonnes — a 130% increase over the drought-affected crop of the previous year and even surpassing pre-drought records. Corn production reached around 54 million tonnes, also a historic high. These figures, reported by the Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR) and USDA, confirmed Argentina's position as one of the world's leading agricultural exporters. The bumper harvest provided a critical supply of foreign exchange precisely when the new government was pursuing fiscal adjustment and attempting to stabilize the economy. Our dashboard on the agricultural sector provides detailed production data by crop, province and growing season.
Export earnings and the trade balance
The agricultural and agro-industrial complex — which includes soybean oil, soybean meal, biodiesel, and other processed derivatives alongside raw grains — drove a 38% increase in total agricultural exports in H1 2024 compared to H1 2023. The overall merchandise trade balance posted a surplus of approximately $9.3 billion in the first half of 2024, enabling the Argentine Central Bank (BCRA) to rebuild its net reserve position. This turnaround in the external accounts was one of the most significant macroeconomic shifts of 2024, and agriculture was the primary driver. Our dashboard on foreign trade tracks export and import flows across all sectors, with monthly data on the trade balance.
Policy interventions: the "dólar agro" mechanism
To accelerate the conversion of grain holdings into formal foreign exchange, the government implemented a temporary preferential export tax reduction scheme for the soybean sector — commonly known as the "dólar agro" — that offered producers a more favorable exchange rate for liquidating their grain stocks. The mechanism generated an estimated additional $2.9 billion in soybean export proceeds during 2024. However, the scheme also highlighted ongoing structural tensions: farmers face incentives to hold grain as a store of value in a high-inflation environment, which can delay the foreign exchange inflows the economy requires. This dynamic is a recurring feature of Argentine agricultural policy cycles.
Challenges: input costs and machinery imports
Despite the production rebound, the sector faced meaningful headwinds. High inflation pushed up domestic input costs — labor, fuel, and locally produced agrochemicals — while foreign exchange restrictions (cepo cambiario) complicated the import of specialized agricultural machinery. Some farmers reported delays in equipment renewal and access to parts. Looking at 2024/25 season planning, weather forecasts and the gradual normalization of FX policy will be key variables. The agricultural sector's performance remains central to Argentina's macroeconomic stability, providing the lion's share of the country's export earnings and a crucial buffer for reserve accumulation.
