Argentina's PASO (Primarias Abiertas Simultáneas y Obligatorias — Primary, Open, Simultaneous and Obligatory) elections of August 13, 2023 produced one of the most significant electoral surprises in recent Argentine political history. With 100% of votes counted, Javier Milei's La Libertad Avanza coalition received 30.0% of the national vote, placing first ahead of Juntos por el Cambio (28.3%) and Unión por la Patria (27.2%). The result was broadly unexpected: pre-election polling had consistently placed La Libertad Avanza at between 20% and 22%, meaning the actual outcome exceeded projections by approximately 8 percentage points. Our dashboard on the 2023 elections provides a detailed geographic breakdown of the PASO and general election results.
The geographic distribution of the vote
A granular reading of the results reveals important geographic patterns. In the City of Buenos Aires — one of Argentina's wealthiest and most politically engaged districts — La Libertad Avanza received 36.7% of votes, its strongest performance among major urban districts. In Buenos Aires Province, the most populous electoral district in the country with roughly 40% of the national electorate, La Libertad Avanza received 28.6% — also a first-place finish. The coalition's support was strongest in urban and peri-urban areas and among younger voter demographics, according to post-election analysis of demographic data. This pattern contrasted with previous electoral cycles in which major cities had been more strongly aligned with established parties from both the center-left and center-right.
Turnout and electoral participation
Voter turnout in the 2023 PASO was 69.8%, below the 76.3% recorded in the 2019 PASO. While turnout in Argentine PASO elections has historically been lower than in general elections — partly because many voters perceive them as an internal party mechanism rather than a genuine election — the 2023 decline raised questions about the representativeness of the result and the degree of civic disengagement in a context of economic hardship. The compulsory nature of voting in Argentina means that turnout below 70% is relatively unusual, and may reflect a degree of voter fatigue or dissatisfaction with the available options that was not captured in voting intention surveys conducted before the election.
Economic context and the protest vote hypothesis
The PASO results took place against a backdrop of severe economic stress: annual inflation was approaching 115% at the time of the vote, real wages had been declining for months, and the agricultural drought had drained foreign exchange reserves. Analysts noted that the scale of support for La Libertad Avanza correlated geographically and demographically with areas and groups most exposed to the deterioration in living standards. However, reducing the result to a simple protest vote misses important dimensions: the coalition also articulated a coherent ideological program that resonated with a substantial segment of the electorate on its own terms. Our dashboard on the Permanent Household Survey provides context on the living conditions that shaped the electoral environment.
The immediate economic aftermath
The electoral result triggered an immediate macroeconomic response. On the Monday following the PASO — August 14, 2023 — the government announced a 22% devaluation of the official exchange rate, adjusting it from approximately $269 to $350 per US dollar. Financial markets reacted sharply across asset classes. The devaluation, combined with the political uncertainty generated by the unexpected electoral result, accelerated the already-high inflationary dynamics documented in the months preceding the vote. The PASO thus functioned simultaneously as an electoral and economic event: a signal of voter preferences that immediately recalibrated expectations about future economic policy and triggered real-economy consequences through the exchange rate channel. The connection between electoral outcomes and economic variables illustrates why integrating political and economic data is essential for understanding Argentina's trajectory.
