Inflation in Argentina: a review of 2024

Argentina's consumer price index recorded annual inflation of 117.8% for the full year 2024 — the highest since 1990, but also a figure that tells a story of dramatic deceleration rather than acceleration. The year began with the inherited momentum of a 211.4% annualized rate reached in December 2023, following the new government's decision to correct the official exchange rate by approximately 118% in a single step. From that chaotic starting point, the trajectory of 2024 was one of gradual, sustained disinflation — a process that played out across twelve months and reshaped relative prices throughout the economy.

From hyperinflation territory to single-digit monthly rates

The monthly CPI path in 2024 illustrates the scale of the disinflation effort. January 2024 recorded 20.6% monthly inflation; February fell to 13.2%; March to 11.0%; and the downward trend continued — with some volatility — through the year. By November 2024, the monthly rate had reached 2.4%, the lowest since early 2022. This deceleration was attributed to three main policy pillars: the achievement of a primary fiscal surplus (eliminating money printing to finance government spending), a tight monetary policy stance with high real interest rates during the early months, and a crawling peg exchange rate policy that limited the pass-through of further devaluations. Our dashboard on inflation and relative prices provides month-by-month CPI data disaggregated by category and region.

Key fact: Monthly inflation fell from 25.5% in December 2023 to 2.4% in November 2024 — one of the most dramatic disinflation episodes in Argentina's modern economic history.

Relative price shifts: regulated vs. market prices

The 2024 inflation process involved significant relative price realignment. Regulated prices — including residential electricity, natural gas, water, and fuel — rose approximately 340% over the year as the government phased out energy and utility subsidies that had been suppressing those prices for years. This correction was necessary to close fiscal gaps but generated sharp increases in household utility bills, particularly in the Greater Buenos Aires area where subsidies had been most concentrated. By contrast, food and beverages rose 95%, and core inflation (excluding regulated and seasonal items) ran somewhat below the headline rate in the second half of the year as monetary conditions tightened demand.

Real wages: a painful adjustment with a partial recovery

The first quarter of 2024 was the most severe for wage earners. Real wages fell approximately 15% in January–March 2024 as the price shock from the devaluation outpaced wage adjustments. From Q2 onward, wage negotiations accelerated: formal private-sector workers covered by collective bargaining agreements (paritarias) received nominal increases averaging 118% over the full year, roughly in line with the annual CPI. Real wages for the formal sector recovered about 8% in the April–December 2024 period, partially offsetting the Q1 loss. However, informal workers — who represent roughly 45% of the employed population — fared worse, as their incomes are not indexed through formal bargaining and tend to lag formal wages in periods of rapid price changes. Our dashboard on employment and wages tracks real and nominal wage indices across sectors and registration categories.

Key fact: The Central Bank accumulated approximately $24 billion in net international reserves during 2024, a key indicator of the stabilization program's early success.

Monetary policy and reserve accumulation

The Central Bank's conduct during 2024 represented a significant departure from the previous decade of monetary accommodation. Net reserve accumulation of approximately $24 billion over the year reflected the combined effect of the agricultural export rebound, a sharp compression in imports due to the recession, and the reduction of financial outflows under the exchange rate control regime. The crawling peg — depreciating the peso at a pre-announced 2% monthly rate — helped anchor inflation expectations while avoiding further abrupt devaluations. Whether the achieved disinflation is durable or whether pent-up pressures will resurface in 2025 as the economy recovers and import demand rises remained an open question heading into the new year.

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