The first quarter of 2026 marked a turning point for public safety in Argentina. Preliminary data from the National Criminal Information System (SNIC) show that the intentional homicide rate fell to 3.8 per 100,000 inhabitants at the close of 2025 — the lowest level since 2014 — and the trend continued in the opening months of the year. Behind that national average, however, very different realities coexist: Rosario is consolidating its recovery following the Plan Bandera, the Buenos Aires metropolitan area is reporting a drop in violent crime, and some northern provinces are recording increases that raise concern.
Homicides: the decline continues, with Rosario leading the way
The drop in homicides was particularly sharp in Rosario, which had been the epicenter of drug-related violence in previous years. The Rosario rate, which exceeded 22 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2022, stood at 6.9 at the end of 2025 and continued to fall in the first quarter of 2026 with only 21 homicides recorded, compared with 39 in the same period the year before. The continuation of the Plan Bandera, the presence of federal forces, and the reorganization of the Federal Penitentiary Service explain much of the phenomenon. The Buenos Aires metropolitan area, in turn, posted a 12% year-on-year decline in intentional homicides. To see the full historical series and compare it by province, visit our security statistics dashboard.
Property crime and the weight of the economy
The evolution of property crime follows a different logic from homicides and is closely linked to economic conditions. Auto theft fell again in the first quarter, extending a trend that had been visible since mid-2024, in part because of tighter controls by the National Automotive Property Registry and better coordination with insurance companies. Street theft also declined year-on-year, although complaints related to digital crimes — home-banking scams, identity theft, and fraud involving cryptoassets — grew for the sixth consecutive quarter and now account for more than 20% of all complaints in major urban centers. The relationship between property crime and socioeconomic conditions can be explored by cross-referencing data with the Permanent Household Survey.
The picture is not uniform: provinces such as Salta and Jujuy show increases in homicides linked to regional criminal economies, and conflicts between gangs in the northern Greater Buenos Aires region remain a point of concern. The sustainability of the decline in violent crime will depend not only on police deployment but also on the state's capacity to maintain investment in the justice system, the prison system, and prevention policies in the coming quarters.
Sources: National Criminal Information System (SNIC) of the Ministry of Security, Santa Fe Provincial Security Observatory, Buenos Aires Public Prosecutor's Office.
